China Open Semi-Finals Tips: Back Selby to Continue His Ruthless Run in Taiyuan

The Pick

Back Mark Selby to win his semi-final against Stuart Bingham in the 2026 China Open. The Jester from Leicester has been in near-flawless form all week and, with a record fourth title firmly in his sights, there's precious little reason to stand in his way. In the other semi, Zhou Yuelong gets the nod against Noppon Saengkham — home crowd advantage and the sharper ranking event pedigree make him the value play on paper, though Saengkham's run has been anything but predictable.

The Analysis: Selby vs Bingham

Mark Selby has looked genuinely ominous in Taiyuan. Across his first three matches he dropped just four frames — the kind of clinical, suffocating snooker that makes him so difficult to back against at any stage of a tournament. The quarter-final demolition of defending champion Neil Robertson, 6-1, was the statement result of the week. Robertson came into the event chasing a return to world number one, and Selby shut that conversation down inside a session. That win also underlines just how locked-in Selby is right now — Robertson is not the sort of player you dismantle 6-1 without being in exceptional nick.

The prize on offer here goes well beyond the £250,000 top prize, substantial as that is. Selby won this event in 2015, 2017, and 2018, and a fourth China Open crown would make him the outright record holder. On top of that, a win this week followed by another title at the Wuhan Open could see him end August as world number one. That kind of motivation, combined with his current level, makes him a seriously dangerous proposition.

Stuart Bingham is no pushover, and it would be foolish to dismiss him entirely. The 50-year-old dispatched Zhang Anda 6-3 in the quarters and, as a former world champion himself — lifting the Crucible trophy in the same year as Selby's first China Open win back in 2015 — he knows how to win big matches. He'll be desperate to end a seven-year wait for a ranking title, having last lifted silverware at the Gibraltar Open. But it's the head-to-head that gives this one an intriguing twist: according to Cue Tracker, Selby and Bingham have met 45 times with each man winning 22, and sharing one draw. You genuinely could not make it more even than that.

That said, current form has to count for something. Selby is playing at a level that Bingham, for all his quality, hasn't matched this week. The 6-3 win over Zhang was solid, but it didn't carry the same ruthlessness we've seen from Selby. When one player is performing that far above their usual level and the head-to-head is a coin flip over the long term, you side with the hot hand.

The Analysis: Saengkham vs Zhou Yuelong

Noppon Saengkham's run to the semi-finals of a ranking event is one of the more remarkable stories of the 2026 calendar year. The Thai potter has punched well above his seeding to reach the last four, and in a tournament that has already seen the back of Ronnie O'Sullivan and Neil Robertson, anything feels possible. However, Zhou Yuelong represents a significant step up and the Chinese player will have an almost overwhelming home support behind him in Taiyuan. Both players are staring down the barrel of a ranking event final — possibly the biggest opportunity of their respective careers at this level — and that pressure can cut both ways.

Zhou has the experience and the technical quality to cope with a major semi-final. Saengkham's run has been brilliant, but backing him to continue defying the odds against a player of Zhou's calibre, on home soil, feels like one step too far. Zhou to win is the steadier play, though if you want a punt on Saengkham to complete the fairytale run, the odds will be generous enough to tempt.

The Odds

Odds are indicative and subject to change. Always check your preferred bookmaker — Bet365, William Hill, and Betway are good starting points for snooker markets — for the latest prices before placing any bet.

Both semi-finals take place on Saturday in Taiyuan, with the China Open returning to the calendar for the first time since 2019. The tournament has been well worth the wait for snooker fans, and Saturday's action promises to deliver two genuinely compelling matches.

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